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Japan keeps view that economy is recovering (Reuters)

2006.12.26

Mon Dec 25, 4:39 AM ET

TOKYO (Reuters) - The Japanese government kept its assessment of the economy unchanged in a monthly report on Monday, after downgrading it for the first time in almost two years last month.

"The economy is recovering, although there is some weakness in consumption," the Cabinet Office said in its December report.

Weak consumption -- which has cast some doubts over the strength of the economy's recovery in recent months -- had been added to the assessment of the economy last month when the government downgraded it for the first time since December 2004.

The December report described personal consumption as "generally flat" -- the same description used last month -- citing sluggishness in the pace of rises in employees' income.

"As for the outlook, personal consumption, with improvement in employment, is expected to increase if the growth of income changes for the better," it said.

The December government report also changed descriptions on housing construction from generally flat to increasing, and corporate goods prices from rising on higher materials prices to "generally flat" due to falls in oil and nonferrous metal prices.

Consumer prices are flat, while growth of general goods prices has slowed with falls in oil product prices, the report said, again stopping short of declaring an end to deflation.

"The government aims to declare an end to deflation in the current fiscal year, but I cannot comment whether that could happen," said Hiroyuki Inoue, a counsellor at the Cabinet Office.

Inoue said the government needs to make sure that the economy won't return to a situation in which prices fall persistently.

The December government report said corporate capital spending is increasing and industrial production is increasing moderately.

But Inoue said attention should be paid to soft machinery orders in recent months in determining the future trend of capital spending, and to the build-up of inventories in hi-tech industries, which he said is in an adjustment stage.

The report said exports are flat, but attention should be paid to the future trend of the U.S. economy whose pace of growth is moderating with declines in housing construction.

The report said the government and the Bank of Japan share basic views on macroeconomic management and will make joint efforts to ensure sustainable economic growth led by private-sector demand.

The central bank left its key overnight call rate target unchanged at 0.25 percent at the policy meeting that ended last Tuesday.

Revised data showed earlier this month that Japan's economy grew a softer-than-expected 0.2 percent in July-September, from a preliminary reading of 0.5 percent, due to sluggish consumption and a downward revision to capital expenditure.

It was the seventh straight quarter of growth.

While the current recovery that began in February 2002 surpassed the 57-month "Izanagi" boom of the late 1960s last month, the pace of growth has been much more modest than previous booms.

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